金融自由化利益的纷争和实证分析

自麦金农和爱德华肖在1973年提出金融深化理论后的30年中，西方许多经济学家对金融自由化的利益倍加关注，并进行了激烈的论战。这些争论带给我们很多有益的启示：金融自由化是一种手段，而不是目的本身；自由化是相对的，过度开放和过度压抑同样都是有害的；金融自由化的后果可以是双重的，有些作用是相互抵消的；金融自由化与危机有关，但后并非前的必然结果。以金融全球化带来的负面影响否认金融全球化的效率和结果是一种偏见。     

Estimating daily volatility in financial markets utilizing intraday data

This study proposes a new approach to the estimation of daily realised volatility in financial markets from intraday data. Initially, an examination of intraday returns on S&P 500 Index Futures reveals that returns can be characterised by heteroscedasticity and time-varying autocorrelation. After reviewing a number of daily realised volatility estimators cited in the literature, it is concluded that these estimators are based upon a number of restrictive assumptions in regard to the data generating process for intraday returns. We use a weak set of assumptions about the data generating process for intraday returns, including transaction returns, given in den Haan and Levin [den Haan, W.J., Levin, A., 1996. Inferences from parametric and non-parametric covariance matrix estimation procedures, Working paper, NBER, 195.], which allows for heteroscedasticity and time-varying autocorrelation in intraday returns. These assumptions allow the VARHAC estimator to be employed in the estimation of daily realised volatility. An empirical analysis of the VARHAC daily volatility estimator employing intraday transaction returns concludes that this estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators cited in the literature.     

培育和发展金融资本促进我国金融业改革

作为世界贸易组织成员国，在经济全球化、全球金融市场一体化和金融自由化的大环境中培育和发展金融资本，是我国金融业的发展趋势，也是更为适合的改革途径。本文试图从金融资本理论出发，探讨这一改革途径的必要性、可能性和发展思路。     

完善我国社会保障财政制度的法律思考

财政作为社会保障的核心组织者和保障资金的重要提供者，在社会保障中起有着十分重要而独特的作用。本文分析了建立和完善我国社会保障财政制度的必要性，并从社会保障预算、社会保障税、社会保障财政转移支付三个方面对我国社会保障财政制度的法律完善进行了探讨。     

中国金融垄断的一个例证--实际利差扩大化

随着股份制商业银行的壮大和中小金融机构的兴起以及外资银行的进入，我国国有商业银行一统天下的局面有了很大改观，但是国有商业银行的垄断地位却没有发生根本性改变。国有商业银行依然凭借其垄断地位，直接或间接地获取垄断利润。本从国有商业银行存贷款利差分析入手，阐述了实际利差扩大化的产生机理，指出国有商业银行垄断地位是实际利差扩大化的制度基础，从而表明实际利差扩大化正是我国金融垄断的一个有力证据。     

Earnings management and initial public offerings: Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper presents one of the first studies of earnings management by initial public offering (IPO) firms in a European country. Using a sample of 64 Dutch IPOs, we investigate the pattern of discretionary current accruals (DCA) over time. We find that managers manage their company's earnings in the first year as a public company but not in the years before the IPO. We also examine the impact of earnings management on the long-run stock price performance of IPOs. We find a negative relation between the size of the DCA in the first year as a public company and long-run stock price performance over the next 3 years. A number of additional tests support these findings.     

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.     

Knowledge transfer costs and dependence as determinants of financial reporting

Abstract This paper examines the circumstances in which financial reporting exists. Jensen and Meckling (1995 ) observe that where there are high knowledge transfer costs, then decentralisation is necessary; and that where decentralisation occurs there is a control problem, which can be addressed by providing a control system. I predict that where there are high knowledge transfer costs there will be a control system; if the control system uses financial reports, these will occur for activities with high knowledge transfer costs. The ability to decentralise is reduced where dependence makes it potentially costly to allow a subordinate to make decisions about the activity. The paper predicts that high dependence will be negatively associated with the existence of financial reports. The results confirm the predictions that financial reports are positively associated with knowledge transfer costs and negatively associated with dependence.     

汇率制度、资本流动与金融危机:理论和实证分析——东亚金融危机视角

20世纪90年代,几乎所有发生金融危机的国家当时都实行固定或钉住汇率制度。东亚金融危机爆发前,东亚各经济体大多实行钉住美元的相对固定汇率制,大量国际资本流入,本币严重高估,经常项目巨额逆差,宏观经济严重失衡。在汇率贬值的预期下,国际投机资本对东亚经济体货币发动攻击,大量资本流出,受攻击的经济体外汇储备耗尽,最终导致实际钉住美元的固定汇率制崩溃,金融危机爆发,蔓延成危及东亚乃至世界的金融危机。东亚金融危机的事实表明,金融危机、资本流动和汇率制度之间存在着密切关系。     

县乡财政:困境与出路

近年来,我国的财政收入以年均20%的速度增长。但在财政收入总量增长的同时,基层财力不足问题严重。主要表现为县乡财政困难和庞大的债务问题。据不完全统计,目前我国县乡政府的债务总规模在4000亿元到1万亿元之间。县乡财政困难不仅严重影响基层经济的发展和公共物品的提供,同时也制约了我国社会整体发展水平的提高,更不利于全面建设小康社会。解决县乡财政困难问题已刻不容缓。本文在考察了县乡财政困难具体情况的基础上,从我国现行财税体制、经济和社会因素等方面进行了多角度的原因分析,力图为县乡财政解困提出一些切实可行的政策建议。